Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 85400.347711 90118.332389 94833.470162 99896.019589 105174.343101 110511.997449 116314.228740
2025-01-19 77185.971698 84379.753939 91769.786168 99918.448349 108640.964919 117687.201715 127767.790497
2025-01-26 72677.605891 81676.109816 91119.817624 101748.148253 113354.611503 125622.440790 139547.451515
2025-02-02 69272.021304 79667.857993 90773.819844 103485.521803 117595.704051 132741.063158 150189.127973
2025-02-09 65924.908823 77386.540220 89824.810966 104273.304880 120540.693206 138234.819948 158879.973067
2025-02-16 62503.613355 74764.715010 88263.266977 104155.531307 122279.508305 142229.434659 165772.330467
2025-02-23 59915.044018 72910.269269 87405.311822 104679.278052 124607.351921 146777.915825 173206.611411
2025-03-02 57353.838590 70937.314437 86276.446674 104765.646514 126326.134038 150550.862495 179698.423478
2025-03-09 55749.998923 69984.586196 86240.368121 106037.479961 129347.693321 155771.271677 187829.922051
2025-03-16 53294.255787 67907.601155 84784.693589 105550.871884 130238.187137 158468.711232 193001.052205
2025-03-23 52163.287245 67356.677057 85080.014413 107086.720610 133471.157589 163874.815876 201332.272704
2025-03-30 50870.945579 66546.074982 85010.156088 108139.557804 136097.361572 168552.555612 208812.293241
2025-04-06 49094.447506 65104.812556 84157.216591 108244.212464 137607.744556 171956.216865 214866.820721
2025-04-13 47288.200675 63565.360919 83132.002156 108094.543244 138780.098252 174944.216598 220435.436948
2025-04-20 46626.065378 63427.148210 83803.474332 110005.840470 142449.940698 180935.118826 229635.254501
2025-04-27 45980.887937 63276.518107 84433.227291 111847.565687 146029.438888 186828.031527 238749.782043
2025-05-04 44903.504182 62529.700119 84280.481873 112684.456777 148351.204838 191189.718633 246020.766461
2025-05-11 43442.473474 61236.869377 83393.641562 112558.686693 149445.599088 194032.585720 251433.761366
2025-05-18 42369.093712 60412.489649 83069.799279 113116.157401 151373.354598 197890.905797 258100.259042
2025-05-25 41146.366012 59351.113413 82405.987007 113208.079486 152690.999770 200982.381560 263822.196113
2025-06-01 40529.733794 59072.826413 82735.894890 114561.854660 155601.474340 206060.275261 272032.059606
2025-06-08 39153.486441 57733.097333 81644.875563 114043.916119 156099.291724 208106.334206 276457.420426
2025-06-15 38729.852284 57667.460926 82213.851317 115678.551571 159356.505527 213629.437124 285266.722474